Thailand to Benefit from India’s Rice Export Ban, Nomura Says

Thailand and Vietnam will most likely benefit from India’s ban on broken rice exports and a 20% duty on shipments of several varieties of rice, said Nomura on Monday, given that they are the world’s second- and third-largest rice exporters, making them the most possible choices for countries looking to fill the gap.

To bolster domestic supplies and calm domestic prices after below-average monsoon rainfall hampered planting, India imposed a restriction on shipments of broken rice and a 20% export duty on rice, brown rice, semi-milled as well as wholly milled rice except for parboiled rice in early September.

According to Nomura, India’s recent move will have effects across Asia since the country is responsible for roughly 40% of global rice shipments and exports to over 150 countries; the Philippines and Indonesia are particularly at risk.

However, there are also countries that stand to benefit, including Thailand and Vietnam.

In 2021, Statista reported, Thailand produced 21.4 million tons of rice, up 2.18 million tons from the previous year.

As a result of the rise in exports and the increased pressure on rice prices caused by India’s restriction, both countries will profit greatly, said Nomura.