The economic calendar this week is the most anticipated as major central banks are deciding their interest rates, also many crucial price indices are densely packed this week as well.
Starting on Monday (18 Sep), many key figures of central banks are scheduled to speak such as ECB’s Vice-president Luis De Guindos, Executive board Fabio Panetta, German Bundesbank’s board executive Sabine Mauderer and Reserve bank of Australia meeting minutes. Their speeches and publications are likely to indicate the direction and future outlooks of the respective economy and policies.
Meanwhile, Canadian housing starts on the same day. This leading indicator measuring new housing monthly in Canada has been on the high side in recent years, while its industrial product price index (IPPI) and raw material price index (RMPI) is also expected on the same day. These two indices were plummeting earlier this year, indicating lower industrial demand of Canada but starting to turn back in recent months while both are still in YoY negative territories.
On Tuesday (19 Sep), the People Bank of China (PBoC) will announce its loan prime rates for September. The rate directions is slowly easing as these rates would have a high impact on the on-going real estate crisis. The current expectation is to stand at the same rate at 4.2% for 5-years and 3.45% for the shorter year which will not further help borrowers, neither the home buyers nor the developers.
EU’s consumer price indices (CPIs) are expected today at 5.3% on both YoY and core CPI. Both have been recently dropping down, indicating the lowering inflation of the Eurozone. Canadian CPIs are also expected at the same day as well. The YoY forecast 3.8% might indicates the Canadian inflation could return if this moving back higher is true.
Some other key numbers to-be-publish are August US building permit, Japan’s adjusted trade balance, New Zealand current account. Also, there’ll be a UK 30-year treasury (Glit) and US 20-year bond auction on the same day. In recent months, both bond rates are still increasing to previously 4.5%. If both are about to be auctioned at a higher rate, it’s indicating both bond markets are still anticipating the higher rate hikes from central banks.
On Wednesday (20 Sep), the biggest event is the FED rate decision as the market is almost certain that the FED won’t raise rate beyond the current 5.5% despite the FED’s chair Powell recent comment that US inflation is not cooling down enough which traditionally should hike further rate.
The UK is expected to publish CPIs, producer price indices (PPIs) and retail price index (RPI) with 7.1% expectation on YoY CPI, 0.2% MoM PPI and 9.3% YoY RPI. UK’s CPI and RPI are falling from last year’s end peaks of 11% and 14%, respectively. Meanwhile both YoY Input and Output PPI are in the negative zone, these three indicating the recently falling prices or inflation in the UK.
Several crucial numbers are expected on the same day as well such as German PPI, US crude oil inventories from EIA that recently went in the negative zone but swung back to positive, New Zealand GDP and also some few other key figures speeches from ECB as well.
On Thursday (21 Sep), Bank of England (BoE) will decide its rate as well at expectation of 5.5% from 5.25% with 7 MPC votes for hike and 2 for unchanged. BoE began to sharply hike the rate in the latter half of last year to fight inflation, the last hike has been slowing down to 25 basis points.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) will decide their interest rate as both have been in the negative zone. BoJ rate is still expected to stand at the same -0.1% while SNB rate has been rising since the latter half of last year to currently 1.75%, and expected to rise more 25 basis point to 2%.
On the other hand, the FED Balance sheet, US Q2 current account, US initial jobless claims, US existing home sales and Philadelphia FED numbers are expected to publish on the same day as well
On Friday (22 Sep), there’ll be a composite purchasing manager index (PMI) publication of many countries such as the US, EU, German, UK and France. Furthermore, Spain GDP, UK Retail Sales and Singapore CPI are expected.
Finally, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s will publish a weekly speculative net position of futures contracts on both major indices and commodities such as S&P 500, gold and crude oil.
