Kaohoon Morning Brief – 16 October 2023

Krungsri Securities (KSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move within the range of 1,440-1,460 points as concerns in the market heightened after Israel advanced into the Gaza Strip, spreading the war to a wider area.

Meanwhile, the US consumer price for October edged lower and inflation forecast accelerated, resulting in a negative sentiment to the market. Oil prices also continued to rise, posting a positive impact to the energy sector. The analyst expected a buying on specific stocks in speculation before the announcement of 3Q23 earnings should support the Thai stock market to bounce back.


The market anticipated that the US Federal Reserve had already made its last rate hike and will start cutting interest rates by next June, according to economists’ consensus polled by the Wall Street Journal.

Meanwhile, the probability of a recession in the U.S. dropped below 50% for the first time in a year.

According to CME FedWatch Tool, the market gave 90.3% odds that the Fed will hold rates at the meeting in November and 67% probability that the trend will continue in December.

Moreover, markets are pricing in permanently higher rates as the Fed funds rate is expected to bottom at 4% in 2025 and will start rising again.

The same trend also applies to Europe as rates are expected to bottom 3%.


This morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) maintained its one-year medium-term lending facility rate unchanged at 2.50%.