Following a conference meeting with BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited’s (SET: BTS) management on Thursday, Krungsri Securities (KSS) holds a slightly optimistic view for fiscal years 2024 and 2025 on the company. Here are the key takeaways from the meeting:
i) KSS anticipates a year-on-year decline in revenue for FY25 due to reduced revenue recognition from the construction of the pink and yellow lines. Nonetheless, the company foresees growth in revenue from other streams such as O&M revenue, revenue from BTSGIF, and VGI.
ii) The firm also looks forward to receiving O&M revenue amounting to Bt36 billion from the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) within the second quarter of FY25. This projection is based on an expectation that the Supreme Administrative Court will rule in favor of BTS over BMA by June.
iii) For the yellow and pink lines, KSS expects an improvement in traffic in FY25 compared to FY24. The company plans to launch a promotional campaign featuring lower fare prices to boost traffic. Estimated average daily traffic for the pink line is 60-80k trips in FY25 (versus 40-50k in FY24) and for the yellow line is 50-70k trips (versus 40-50k in FY24).
iv) In response to lower-than-expected traffic on both the yellow and pink lines caused by COVID-19, BTS is seeking compensation from the concession owner, the Mass Rapid Transit Authority (MRTA). MRTA is currently reviewing the request and has asked for additional information from BTS before making a decision on providing financial assistance.
KSS notes that most of BTS’s financial guidance aligns with their estimates, with the exception of the remedy compensation and potential cash inflow from O&M, which have not been factored into their model. These factors are considered upside risks, pending clarity on the amount requested for remedy compensation and MRTA’s decision on financial assistance. The impact on BTS’s cash flow, not the profit and loss statement, from the O&M revenue acknowledgment is highlighted, which could potentially lead to debt repayment.
Krungsri Securities reiterates its Buy rating on BTS Group Holdings with a target price of Bt6.4, based on a turnaround theme.
