On Thursday at 10:21 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Mono Next Public Company Limited (SET: MONO) rose by 2.35% or THB 0.04 to THB 1.74, with a trading value of THB 54.75 million.
Liberator Securities recommends a ‘BUY’ rating on MONO, raising its target price to 2.69 baht per share—citing attractive new packages from JAS that can compete with piracy, plus a richer than expected content offering. While MONO’s revenue per user is expected to remain the same, the company is projected to see volume 50% above previous assumptions.
The new service package offers live broadcasts of the English Premier League (EPL) and FA Cup for six seasons, priced at 299 baht per month and 2,999 baht per year. AIS customers get discounted rates of 199 baht per month and 1,999 baht per year (equivalent to 166.58 baht per month).
The entry price of 299 baht is significantly lower than prior offers from TRUE (599 baht/month), representing a 50% discount—or a 66.8% discount for AIS customers. This package beats internal estimates by the IFA, which were capped at 400 baht/month. Furthermore, subscribers get access to Thai League football, as well as selected series and movies, which the brokerage firm expects will be well received by consumers.
MONO’s management believes that competitive pricing against piracy and strong marketing could drive membership up to 5 million. Next in line, Laos and Cambodia markets are expected to contribute a combined 1 million members. Although fees per member are lower, JAS confirms it will pay MONO the same rate (50 baht/member/month) for live broadcasting.
Besides AIS, which provides 1 billion baht in annual support, MONO has also secured partners including Leo, Plan B, PPTV, and Siam Sport, with more to be announced—steps expected to improve MONO’s marketing efficiency and reduce costs.
The previous target from the management of 3 million members is now seen as much more attainable, prompting the analyst to revise the base-case scenario from 2 to 3 million members.
This resulted in estimated profit upgrades for 2025 and 2026 by 85.3% and 90.8%, to 354 million baht and 832 million baht, respectively. In addition, net IBD/E is set to decrease from 5.3x last year to 2.3x this year (previously forecast at 2.7x).
