TMBThanachart Bank Public Company Limited (SET: TTB) on Tuesday announced a financial management share buyback program, totaling no more than THB 21 billion over three years, and set for 2025-2027.
The first phase of the buyback will utilize up to THB 7 billion, repurchasing no more than 3.5 billion shares (3.6% of total shares outstanding) through automatic matching on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, running from February 3, 2025 to August 1, 2025.
Kasikorn Securities (KS) highlighted TTB as the most outstanding bank among its industry peers for shareholder returns in 2025–2026, both from an increased dividend payout and the three-year share buyback plan.
TTB is projected to offer a dividend yield of 7.1% in 2025, and when factoring in the buyback program (with a maximum of THB 4.3 billion per year during 2025–2027, compared to the peak plan of THB 7.0 billion per year), the share buyback is expected to enhance shareholder returns by an additional 2.3% per annum.
As a result, total expected shareholder returns could reach approximately 9.4% per annum during 2025–2026.
TTB’s 2Q25 performance was in line with expectations, demonstrating strong asset quality and prudent management to cushion potential impacts from future U.S. tariff changes. In the short term, TTB’s Net Interest Margin (NIM) is expected to trend lower due to another policy rate cut in the latter half of 2025.
However, TTB also stands to reduce its cost-to-income ratio further in 2H25, benefiting from continued digital transformation and branch/staff reductions.
Consequently, KS expects the company to report quarterly profits of around THB 5 billion in the second half of the year and has raised its 2025–2027 earnings forecasts by 1.7–7.0%.
The brokerage firm also upgraded its recommendation for TTB to ‘Buy’ and raised the target price to THB 2.16 per share, reflecting a higher Price to Book Value (P/BV) target of 0.83x (from 0.75x) and upgraded earnings projections.
TISCO Securities maintains a “Buy” rating for TTB with a fair value of THB 2.20 per share. After the recent analyst meeting, TTB’s management offered a positive outlook with regard to the Tax Shield benefit, a strong balance sheet, and proactive provisioning for further management flexibility.
TISCO views TTB’s profits as less volatile than its peers, supporting a sustainable dividend payout of 7% and a robust buyback of 3.6% of paid-up shares.
With its stable earnings, high dividend yield, and the three-year buyback plan, these positive factors differentiate TTB, which has outperformed the banking index by 3% and the overall market index by 15% since the start of 2025.
TTB executives are adopting a conservative strategy given the current economic outlook, tightening loan criteria to preserve balance sheet quality and manage credit costs, leading to a lower need for general provisioning.
However, with uncertainties especially in the latter half of the year—such as potential U.S. tariff impacts—TTB has increased its management overlay provision as a buffer until the impacts can be more accurately assessed.
The current buyback program (equal to 11% of paid-up capital over three years) ensures TTB can sustain its dividend per share, even if future earnings decline by 10%. To prepare for the period after the protective buffer ends, TTB is enhancing its digital platforms, expanding its product suite, and improving its balance sheet.
Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) stated that an increase in share buybacks and a higher Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR) than current levels would further support Return on Equity (ROE).
Although the first phase of the buyback concludes on August 1, 2025, a six-month break will be required before further buybacks if a new ministerial regulation is not yet enacted, potentially causing share price momentum to temporarily stall. Nevertheless, the first-half 2025 dividend yield of 3.4%—the highest among peers—should support TTB’s share price.
