Kasikorn Securities (KS) noted in its analysis regarding key developments and outlooks following recent discussions with executives of the PTT Group during a facility visit in Rayong, covering dividend policy, progress on new strategic partnerships, successful fundraising, and ongoing asset monetization activities across PTT (SET: PTT) and its subsidiaries.
KS maintains a forecast for PTT’s 2025 dividend at THB 2.1 per share, consistent with last year, implying a yield of approximately 6.7%. However, there is room for an increase to the payout at the request of both domestic and international investors seeking yields of 8-9% to bolster PTT’s status as a dividend stock.
As PTT management has reaffirmed its commitment to delivering stable, long-term returns for shareholders, the analyst expected an interim dividend of THB 0.8 per share by the end of this month, unchanged from the prior year.
Regarding collaboration, PTT is expected to finalize new strategic partners for its downstream subsidiaries in the petrochemical and refining segment by the end of 2025. The process will likely involve new equity issuances by these subsidiaries, allowing PTT to reduce its stake but remain the leading shareholder.
Since no fair value adjustment is expected from these transactions, there will be no special profit or loss impact on earnings. The capital inflow from this initiative will help strengthen the financial standing of the subsidiaries.
PTT Global Chemical (SET: PTTGC) recently completed a successful $1.1 billion perpetual bond issuance, reportedly oversubscribed eightfold. The company is moving to convert the bond’s interest rate structure from a floating to a fixed rate, aiming for an interest expense below 5% post-swap. Proceeds from the issuance are expected to help reduce the company’s net debt to EBITDA ratio to below four times, bolstering its balance sheet.
Within the asset monetization agenda, PTT continues to serve as a principal buyer of assets monetized by its subsidiaries in petrochemicals and refining. Global Power Synergy (SET: GPSC) is actively evaluating two major deals to acquire stakes in captive power plants currently owned by PTTGC and Thai Oil (SET: TOP), amounting to a combined 700MW of generation capacity.
While transaction details are yet to be finalized, completion is anticipated by early 2026. GPSC is also studying investments in data center businesses to help position Thailand as a regional destination for hyper-scale data center operators.
Top Picks and Sector Views
Kasikorn Securities continues to favor TOP among energy names due to its relatively higher diesel yields, strong progress on the Clean Fuel Project (CFP), and potential gains from asset monetization.
In the petrochemical sector, PTTGC remains preferred given prospects for valuation rerating and upside from ongoing portfolio optimization and asset monetizations.
With global energy prices trending lower, GPSC is well positioned to benefit from falling LNG and coal prices. Additional picks include PTT Oil and Retail Business (SET: OR) and IRPC (SET: IRPC), which are seen as attractively valued despite subdued sector earnings and industry fundamentals.
The analyst assigns an ‘Outperform’ rating to PTT, TOP, PTTGC, OR, and GPSC, setting price targets at THB 33.80, THB 36.50, THB 30.20, THB 16.20, and THB 41.50, respectively. Meanwhile, IRPC receives a ‘Neutral’ call with a target price of THB 1.12 per share.
