Thailand’s tourism sector is projected to receive a boost from the upcoming Chinese National Day holiday, known as Golden Week, which spans 13 days from 26 September to 8 October. The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) forecasts that this period will see approximately 25,000–30,000 Chinese tourists visiting daily, generating more than Bt10 billion in revenue, according to Phillip Securities (Thailand). Despite this short-term surge, the overall outlook for Chinese tourist arrivals remains cautious.
While Golden Week is expected to be lucrative, Chinese arrivals in September 2025 are projected to contract by a double-digit percentage year-on-year (y-o-y). For the full year, Chinese tourist arrivals are forecast at 4.23 million, representing a steep 37.2% y-o-y decline.
TAT is working to restore confidence among Chinese visitors amid this slowdown. Ongoing initiatives include Trusted Thailand and Summer Blast, designed to encourage group travel, along with the “Nihao Month” campaign celebrating the Mid-Autumn Festival and China’s National Day. The Chinese passport privilege program also provides special benefits for visitors.
Analysts maintain a positive outlook for Thailand’s broader tourism industry in the second half of 2025, supported by easing political uncertainty. Clearer tourism stimulus measures are expected following the formation of a new government, such as the proposed co-payment tourism campaign. The sector’s overall rating is NEUTRAL.
For medium- to long-term investors, CENTEL remains the top pick for Phillip. Analysts recommend a ‘BUY’ rating with a target price of Bt37.25 per share.
Key performance highlights for CENTEL include:
- Hotel Revenue: Expected to grow at a high single-digit rate in 3QFY25.
- Average Daily Room Rates (ADR): Up 2% y-o-y in July–August 2025, driven mainly by upcountry hotels.
- Restaurant Sales: Same-store sales (SSS) turned slightly positive in July–August, showing single-digit y-o-y growth. Recovery was led by top brands and expansion in Japanese restaurant concepts. Analysts remain confident in SSS momentum despite seasonal headwinds.
Other stocks with ‘BUY’ recommendations include MINT, ERW, and SPA. All received BUY rating with target price at THB33.75, THB3.20 and THB5.00, respectively.
