Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) stated that GFPT Public Company Limited (SET: GFPT) is expected to report a robust pre-exceptional profit of THB 650 million for 3Q25, representing a 20% increase year-on-year and a marginal 1% quarter-on-quarter rise.
The anticipated profit growth is primarily attributed to significant gross margin expansion driven by lower raw material costs. Should GFPT’s performance meet these expectations, its nine-month profits would make up 91% of KKPS’ full-year forecast and 87% of the consensus, signaling potential upside against current estimates.
Despite these gains, GFPT’s total sales are projected to decrease by 6% year-on-year, mainly due to a 13% decline in the food business segment. This decline is the result of lower export volumes and reduced average selling prices, reflecting strong sales in the prior year when customers accelerated inventory purchases amid disruptions in Red Sea shipping routes.
Gross margin is anticipated to markedly improve to 19.7% in 3Q25, from 15.5% in 3Q24 and 16.7% in 2Q25, bolstered by lower-priced inventory stock and raw material costs. Additionally, the SG&A to sales ratio is expected to fall to 7.5%, down from 8.2% a year earlier.
Meanwhile, GFPT faced operational challenges due to a shortage of workers after a significant number of Cambodian employees—constituting around 20% of its workforce—returned home following tensions at the Thai-Cambodian border. Consequently, the company struggled to fulfill all client orders and incurred extra costs from overtime pay, while equity income is projected to decline by 52%, with GFPT Nichirei (Thailand) (GFN) being close to the breakeven point, but facing a slowdown from the Thailand-Cambodia dispute as it relies heavily on Cambodian workers.
Looking ahead, KKPS forecasts that a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter profit improvement is expected in 4Q25, as the labor shortage is nearly resolved. This should support revenue growth through increased order fulfillment, reduce SG&A expenses due to less overtime pay, and enable a recovery in equity income as operations at GFN normalize.
The period is also expected to be supported by continued low raw material costs, although the company cautions that these costs may rise in 2026. Furthermore, a previously planned new slaughterhouse could see its operational date postponed from 3Q25 to either 4Q25 or 1Q26 due to construction delays caused by the labor issues.
As a result, KKPS maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on GFPT, with a target price set at THB 13.70 per share.
