Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating on Minor International Public Company Limited (SET: MINT), setting a target price of THB 39 per share. The brokerage firm expects MINT’s core profit for the third quarter of 2025 to reach THB 2.8 billion, a 6% year-on-year increase.
KKPS anticipates that European hotel RevPAR (revenue per available room) will post moderate growth of 2% year-on-year, though it will remain flat in baht terms, impacted by a high base from last year’s events such as Euro 2024.
Thai hotels are projected to see their RevPAR decline 7% year-on-year due to a slowdown in tourist arrivals and ongoing renovations at several major Thai properties since June. Excluding the renovation effect, RevPAR at Thai hotels would be flat year-on-year.
In the Maldives, RevPAR is forecast to grow by 13% year-on-year (+4% in baht terms). Overall system-wide RevPAR of owned and leased hotels should remain stable year-on-year in baht terms, noted the analyst.
In the food business segment, same-store sales (SSS) at both the Thai and China hubs are expected to stabilize and show flat growth year-on-year, compared to declines of 3% and 7% year-on-year, respectively, in the second quarter.
Meanwhile, KKPS forecasts a slight improvement in EBITDA margin, up to 28.8% from 28.6% in the third quarter of last year. Interest expenses are expected to decline significantly—down 23% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter—driven by a lower debt level. However, residential unit sales are expected to show a year-on-year decrease.
Looking ahead, KKPS expects further improvements in both Thai and European hotel RevPAR in the fourth quarter of 2025. European RevPAR trends have already improved from a 3% decline in July to 4% year-on-year growth in August and September, with higher growth anticipated in 4Q25 as the comparative base becomes more normalized.
Renovations at most major Thai hotels are likely to be completed by November, setting the stage for a 7–9% year-on-year RevPAR increase during the December festive season, based on forward bookings. As a result, Thai hotel RevPAR is forecast to return to flat growth year-on-year in the fourth quarter.
The Maldives hotel segment is also expected to continue its double-digit year-on-year growth trajectory, supporting stronger core profit growth for MINT in 4Q25 compared to 3Q25. Additionally, Minor expects average daily rates (ADR) for Thai hotels to show low- to mid-single-digit growth in 2026 once flagship hotel renovations are completed.
KKPS has rolled forward its discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation base to 2026 and maintains its core earnings forecast for MINT. With these adjustments, the broker has set a new target price of THB 39 per share. MINT is currently trading at an attractive valuation of just 12 times estimated 2026 earnings, and KKPS expects earnings momentum to accelerate into the fourth quarter of 2026, underlining its positive outlook on the stock.
