Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF) is set to report its 3Q25 performance as well as its nine-month results. According to the LSEG Consensus, the outlook for GULF remains positive, with a strong net profit growth forecast.
Earnings for 3Q25 are estimated at THB 7,194.34 million, representing about a 20% increase year-on-year. For the entire year, net profit is projected at THB 25,935.91 million, up about 21.3% from the previous year. The average target price from analysts (Consensus Target Price) stands at THB 61.04, based on 13 brokers.
Kasikorn Securities (KS) anticipates normalized profit for GULF in 3Q25 to reach THB 7,100 million, a 29% YoY growth. This profit growth is mainly driven by higher electricity production capacity, following the commercial operation date (COD) of Hin Kong Power Plant (HKP) Unit 2, which began commercial operations with a capacity of 770 MW and in which GULF holds a 49% stake since early 2025.
However, KS research department expects normalized profit to remain steady at THB 7,100 million quarter-on-quarter (excluding special gains), as dividend income from Kasikornbank Public Company Limited (SET: KBANK) is expected to decrease from THB 977 million in 2Q25 to about THB 220 million. This decline is expected to be fully offset by higher share of profit from associates.
Net profit, however, is expected to drop significantly by about 89% QoQ, due to the absence of extraordinary gains as seen in the previous quarter.
Additionally, GULF’s operations will likely be supported by Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (SET: ADVANC) and power plants in the United States. The share of profit from ADVANC is expected to improve both YoY and QoQ due to strong revenue growth, reduced depreciation costs, and lower spectrum expenses.
Meanwhile, Jackson Power Plant in the U.S., with a capacity of 1,200 MW (GULF holds a 49% stake), is anticipated to deliver better returns after adjustments to the availability payment rate from the second half of 2025 onward, potentially boosting GULF’s net profit by about THB 300 million QoQ.
Looking ahead to 4Q25 and the first half of 2026, about 600 MW of solar farm projects are expected to gradually come online by year-end. The 25 MW data center, a joint venture, remains in the initial development phase and is not yet generating profits. The recommendation remains “Buy” for GULF, with a target price of THB 61, based on solid long-term growth prospects.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) takes a positive view of GULF’s earnings outlook, expecting normalized profit for 3Q25 to come in at THB 7,005 million. Despite KBANK dividend income dropping by approximately THB 700 million, GULF benefits from a 126% YoY increase in ADVANC’s share of profit and improved energy cost efficiency after lower natural gas prices.
Jackson Wind Power Plant in the U.S. has significantly increased revenue due to the PJM market price soaring from $29/MWh to $270/MWh, while GGC and domestic power plants continue to support overall performance.
Normalized profit in 4Q25 is expected to grow YoY and QoQ, possibly reaching an all-time high, supported by increased production capacity and high electricity usage rates, notably from ADVANC and full-scale operations at Thai and European power projects.
Recently, the company signed a data center service contract with Microsoft, through the Phase 1 data center with capacity of 35 MW (GULF holds a 40% share; 25 MW already online), paving the way for digital infrastructure and cybersecurity services with ADVANC-GULF. This will enhance the data center’s utilization rate and support long-term recurring revenues. GULF is expected to play a greater role in the integrated energy and digital infrastructure business
The securities firm also maintains its “Buy” recommendation with a revised 2026 target price of THB 59 per share, using sum-of-the-parts valuation (SOTP), forecasting 2025 earnings at THB 26,595 million, up 47% from last year.
