Krungsri Securities (KSS) has upgraded its recommendation on Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) to “Buy,” while raising the 2026 target price to THB 37.25, up from THB 32.00.
Regarding overall performance, 3Q25 profit exceeded expectations, beating both KSS and market estimates by approximately 8% and 4% respectively. Net profit recovered year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter primarily because there was no stock loss from oil inventories, which had been a major pressure factor.
It is expected that normalized profit for 4Q25 will recover rapidly and stand out from peers, driven mainly by a 39% increase in refining volume from the previous quarter after resuming full operations following a major maintenance shutdown. Additionally, the market Gross Integrated Margin (Market GIM) jumped 92% quarter-on-quarter, supported by global supply tightness in the oil market.
Since the company has no plans for a major maintenance shutdown in 2026, this will be a significant factor underpinning operational growth. There is also potential for further upward earnings revision if the incremental costs for the Clean Fuel Project (CFP) turn out lower than currently projected.
Kasikorn Securities (KS) stated that Thai Oil (TOP)’s net profit was in line with expectations. The profit drop quarter-on-quarter was due to a 30–45 day refinery and affiliate plant maintenance shutdown, and absence of special items from CAP.
Nevertheless, year-on-year performance improved due to a 1.3 billion baht special gain from bond buybacks and a 1.6 billion baht oil inventory gain. The average market gross refining margin (Market GRM) was at US$3.5/barrel. 4Q25 profit is expected to remain flat, despite a risk of a US$60–70 million inventory loss and absence of special items. Full-utilization will help boost earnings by US$45 million, and a rebound in refining margin to US$6–7/barrel will add another US$80 million in revenue. Nine-month profit for 2025 reached about 12.1 billion baht, or 81% of the full-year projection of 14.9 billion baht, with downside risks to this year’s estimates seen as “limited.” KS maintains its “Buy” recommendation for TOP, raising the target price to THB 39.50.
