Yuanta Securities (Thailand) remarked that Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (SET: IVL) announced a net loss of THB 818 million for 3Q25, beating both company and market expectations, which had anticipated a loss of THB 1-1.5 billion. The better-than-expected result was mainly attributed to a high tax reversal.
On an operational basis, adjusted EBITDA reached $279 million, in line with estimates but down 15% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 35% year-on-year (YoY). EBITDA softened primarily due to CPET and fiber operations, which were affected by plant shutdowns for maintenance, seasonal PET demand slowdown, and unplanned shutdowns.
IVL shares declined 17% over the past month as the market had already priced in weak Q3 performance. Consequently, there is short-term potential for a “buy on fact” rebound now that the results are known.
However, prospects for 4Q25 remain only mildly constructive, with gradual QoQ recovery expected but no significant improvement. This is due to overlapping maintenance shutdowns at PO/MTBE plants and a potential inventory loss.
Fundamentally, the securities firm maintains a neutral “Trading” recommendation on IVL, with a fair value target of THB 21.00 per share. In the short term, the research team favors refinery stocks over IVL.
