Brokers have released mixed outlooks for Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (SET: IVL), following the company’s results for the third quarter of 2025, with net losses reported across the board and an outlook for only modest improvement heading into the year’s end.
DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) (DBS) has maintained its “Hold” recommendation on IVL, predicting only slight improvement ahead with a target price of THB 20.
For the third quarter of 2025, IVL posted a net loss of THB 818 million, which is weaker year-over-year (YoY) and quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). According to analysts, this was primarily due to low seasonality, higher utility costs, and several maintenance activities.
The company’s sales volume for the period stood at 3.22 million tonnes, down 9% YoY and 3% QoQ, while EBITDA per tonne dropped to $88, a decrease of 27% YoY and 10% QoQ. DBS expects an improvement in the fourth quarter due to seasonal demand but maintains a cautious outlook for IVL heading into fiscal year 2026.
CLSA Securities (Thailand) (CLSA) has maintained an “Outperform” recommendation on IVL with a higher target price of THB 24, citing that the loss in 3Q was not as bad as the firm had anticipated.
According to CLSA, IVL’s reported third-quarter net loss of THB 818 million (THB 0.19 per share) was greater than its THB 521 million loss in the previous quarter. The results were mainly attributed to weaker sales volumes, softer spreads from seasonal effects, and a stock loss.
CLSA cites weak global macro sentiment and the impact of shutdowns as factors likely to extend into the fourth quarter of 2025. However, the brokerage anticipates a recovery in 2026, partly from reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US under the Trump administration and the company’s ongoing deleveraging plans.
JPMorgan (JPM) has an “Overweight” stance on IVL, despite recognizing that the company’s third quarter performance was unexpectedly disappointing. IVL reported a headline loss of THB 818 million for 3Q25, a larger deficit compared to THB 521 million in 2Q25 and below JPMorgan’s estimates.
After adjusting for a THB 432 million inventory loss, THB 116 million in hedging gains, and other one-off items, core earnings came out as just breaking even at THB 100 million—down 76% QoQ and 97% YoY. JPMorgan notes this still marginally outperforms its expectations of a loss.
Management cited ongoing pressure on core profitability from subdued demand for PET, Fibers & Packaging, as well as softer PET/PSF spreads and lower utilization rates (73% versus 80% in the previous quarter), impacted by both planned and unplanned maintenance shutdowns.
Adjusted EBITDA dropped to $276 million, falling 15% QoQ; Combined PET (CPET) adjusted EBITDA was down 17% QoQ and 39% YoY, reflecting seasonally weak PET demand. Intermediate core EBITDA declined 33% QoQ despite a one-off of around $17 million insurance receipt.
Conversely, Indovinya’s EBITDA was slightly up at USD 78 million (+3% QoQ, -24% YoY), while Fiber EBITDA dropped 35% q/q, especially hurt by seasonal weakness in Europe.
For the first nine months of 2025, IVL’s core EBITDA totaled $885 million, down 21% YoY and covering about 69% of JPMorgan’s full-year estimate.
