Global appetite for oil and gas could continue climbing until 2050, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, marking a significant change from its earlier stance that a rapid move toward clean energy was imminent. According to its latest annual World Energy Outlook, the agency now expects that efforts to meet international climate targets are likely to fall short.
The Paris-based energy watchdog, influenced by mounting pressure from the United States under President Donald Trump, has shifted focus in recent years. Trump has encouraged American energy companies to ramp up oil and gas output, a departure from the clean-energy momentum seen under former president Joe Biden. During Biden’s tenure, the IEA projected that global oil demand would reach its peak before 2030, with calls to halt new fossil fuel investment to hit climate targets.
The agency had shifted to prioritizing climate pledges and net-zero targets in its scenarios since 2020, but has now returned to projecting energy demand based solely on enacted government policies. The IEA noted that not enough countries have submitted credible climate action plans for 2031-2035 to warrant analysis of the pledges scenario in this year’s report.
According to the IEA’s “stated policies scenario,” which considers announced but not necessarily implemented policy measures, oil consumption would still peak around 2030.
The IEA stressed that its scenarios outline potential trajectories under differing policy environments, rather than offering definitive predictions.
In its report, the IEA noted a surge in final investment decisions for liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in 2025. By 2030, new projects are expected to supply an additional 300 billion cubic metres (bcm) annually—a 50% boost to global capacity. LNG supply is forecast to expand from around 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm by 2035 and 1,020 bcm by 2050, spurred by rising power needs, particularly from data centers and the proliferation of artificial intelligence.
Investments in data center infrastructure are set to reach US$580 billion in 2025, exceeding the US$540 billion currently spent yearly on oil supply, the report said.
Despite more than 190 nations committing in 2015 to cap temperature rises to 1.5°C, the IEA’s analysis suggests this goal is unlikely to be met in any scenario except the net zero pathway— and only then if significant carbon removal technologies are deployed.
