Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF), one of Thailand’s largest and most diversified energy conglomerates, continues to be under the spotlight following its latest analyst meeting.
The company provided updates spanning its liquefied natural gas (LNG) ambitions, renewable energy initiatives, and investment strategies at home and abroad. Leading brokerage houses have since delivered their assessments in a short note, offering views that range from neutral to mildly bullish.
Maybank Thailand: Neutral Tone Amid Incremental Progress
Maybank Thailand maintained a neutral outlook following GULF’s analyst meeting, noting the absence of any significant new developments. Management guidance emphasized the expansion of its LNG import business, projecting an increase to 70 imported vessels in the coming year, expected to contribute around THB 1.5 billion to earnings. GULF is also considering acquiring its own LNG ships to enhance business efficiency and profitability.
Maybank highlighted management’s expectation that capacity prices in the PJM electricity market will remain high at about USD 300/MW for several years, driven by ongoing gas turbine shortages. Domestically, GULF anticipates government intervention to reduce what is currently perceived as an excessive wheeling charge.
The company reaffirmed that between 2026 and 2033, greenfield investments will be limited except for joint ventures with local partners in renewable energy. Instead, GULF seeks mergers and acquisitions with minimum deal sizes of THB 10 billion to scale up earnings. Furthermore, there are signals of consistent dividend payments, likely influenced by the interests of INTUCH shareholders. However, the prospect of direct power purchase agreements (PPAs) was flagged as an unexciting policy.
Maybank also noted ongoing risks, such as potential delays in the Burapa project’s commercial operation due to high turbine costs. Overall, the meeting lacked significant catalysts, reinforcing the brokerage’s “Hold” rating and target price of THB 45.
Kasikorn Securities: Investment Strategy and Project Pipeline in Focus
Kasikorn Securities’ review echoed a steady-to-positive outlook, focusing on GULF’s strategic maneuvers in renewable energy and its ongoing project pipeline. Most projects remain on track, with particular attention on the Pak Beng and Pak Lay hydropower projects, both set to reach financial closure with lenders by late 2025 or early 2026. This development provides greater certainty and is expected to secure lower financing costs.
Kasikorn sees earnings growth in the near term driven by the commercial operation of domestic renewable plants such as solar farms, wind farms, waste-to-energy facilities, and revenue from LNG shipments. There is also an upside from rate hikes at GULF’s US-based power plants. For future strategy, GULF is targeting both domestic and developed international markets (Europe, US). For domestic strategy, GULF prefers acquiring stakes in operational projects where it can leverage cost advantages and superior resources. However, Kasikorn noted risks, especially a 2-3 year likely delay for the Burapa plant’s commercial operation due to unresolved contract issues—viewed as a negative factor. The brokerage suggested the possibility of interim dividends to improve shareholder returns and maintained a “Buy” recommendation with a target price of THB 61.
Krungsri Securities: Slightly Positive, Backed by Strong LNG and Hydropower Outlook
Krungsri Research adopted a slightly positive stance after the analyst meeting, emphasizing the financial closure of the Pak Beng and Pak Lay hydropower projects which enjoy reduced interest expense and an improved internal rate of return (IRR) reaching double digits. The management projects GULF will import 70 LNG vessels in 2026, up from approximately 50 vessels in 2025, translating into a revenue boost from THB 1 billion to THB 1.5 billion year-on-year.
For renewables, the firm highlighted GULF’s second phase of projects, totaling 1,480 MW, underpinned by a PPA electricity tariff of THB 2.16 per unit—a minor decrease with no significant negative financial impact. There is optimism about contract finalization by year-end 2025. However, GULF was not awarded any new projects directly in this recent renewables round, while other operators like GUNKUL secured capacity. Despite this, Krungsri maintained its “Buy” rating with a 2026 target price of THB 59 per share.
