Phillip Securities (Thailand) has a neutral view on transportation and logistics stocks, but raises Bangkok Airways as its top pick in the aviation sector as Thailand tourism is approaching its peak season in December.
Thailand’s foreign tourist arrivals in November 2025 totaled 2.91 million, a 13.3% increase from the previous month but a 7.5% decline year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports. This marks the ninth consecutive month of annual decline, worsening from October’s 3.9% drop.
The seasonal increase from October to November was anticipated, though the lack of major international holidays in November, compared to October’s Golden Week in China and other Asian festivals, contributed to the continued decline. Notably, major events such as the Blackpink World Tour and other concerts in Thailand during this period helped, but were insufficient to stem the downward trend.
From January through November 2025 (11M25), foreign tourist arrivals slumped by 7.3% to 29.6 million. China, traditionally Thailand’s largest source of visitors, recorded a steep 33.8% drop, while South Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia also posted declines. Conversely, arrivals from India grew by 16.4%, and tourists from the UK, Germany and Russia also showed double-digit annual increases.
Forecasts by the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), the Thailand Tourism Council, and the Bank of Thailand (BoT) projected foreign arrivals in 2025 at around 33 to 33.4 million. However, ongoing declines, severe flooding in the south, and rising tensions with Cambodia are expected to hinder recovery, making these targets unlikely. Phillip expects 2025 arrivals to reach 32-33 million, below the previous year’s 35.54 million.
Despite some optimism for 2026, as TAT and BoT forecast close to 35 million arrivals supported by potential recoveries from China and continued growth from Europe and the US, several risks remain. Key concerns include global economic uncertainties and a strong baht, which may dampen Thailand’s competitiveness against regional rivals like Vietnam and Japan. Additionally, China’s push for domestic tourism could further challenge Thailand’s inbound numbers.
With these headwinds, Phillip Securities (Thailand) maintains a ‘NEUTRAL’ outlook for the tourism-linked transportation and logistics (TRANS) sector. Within aviation, Bangkok Airways (BA) is highlighted as the top pick, supported by its dominance on the Koh Samui route and rising European arrivals. BA is forecasted to pay a FY2025 dividend of Bt1.03, with payouts scheduled in two tranches.
