Maybank Securities remains upbeat on Thailand’s equity outlook for 2026, maintaining its year-end SET Index target at 1,370 despite modest earnings growth forecasts. According to their latest strategy report, the SET Index, trading at 11.5 times P/E (excluding DELTA), remains ASEAN’s second cheapest market. The brokerage recommends investors position early in the year, anticipating a rally tied to the upcoming election and improved political stability.
Maybank Securities expects Bhumjaithai party leader Mr. Anutin to return as Prime Minister, forming a majority coalition with Pheu Thai and others, following a likely second-place finish. While the People’s Party is projected to win the most seats, it likely lacks sufficient support to govern alone. The firm notes that political stability is crucial, highlighting historical data since 1992 that election rallies generally offer a 4% average return for investors who buy one month before and sell one month after the event.
The brokerage highlights data center expansion, recovering foreign direct investment (FDI), and robust trade activity as primary growth drivers for Thailand in 2026. They cite a 21% year-on-year increase in Board of Investment (BOI) applications in the first ten months of 2025, alongside government efforts like the FastPass scheme to accelerate FDI approvals. New trade agreements—including the Thailand-EFTA FTA (effective early 2026), Thailand-EU FTA (expected signing in 1Q26), and Thailand-Korea CEPA (end of 2025)—are also expected to support both investment and subsequent trade, potentially boosting GDP growth by 1.9 percentage points in the near term.
The firm maintains a POSITIVE rating on the telecom, utilities, property, and industrial estate sectors and upgrades finance, tourism, and F&B sectors, expecting them to benefit most from the election. Meanwhile, petrochemicals, electronics, and commerce remain underweight. Top stock picks for an election rally include MTC, BBL, TRUE, MINT, and AP. For thematic exposure to data centers, FDI, and trade growth, favored companies are WHA, AMATA, ITC, CCET, and GULF.
