Morgan Stanley has revised its outlook for PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited (SET: PTTGC), maintaining its “Overweight” rating while raising the price target to Bt29 from Bt26. The adjustment incorporates updated forecasts that consider year-to-date (YTD) product spreads, elevated oil prices, and sector multiples benchmarks.
The firm’s revised estimates indicate consolidated EBITDA downgrades of 4% and 2% for 2026 and 2027, respectively. While upstream chemicals’ EBITDA is projected to rise by 2-3%, these gains are expected to be offset by diminished contributions from intermediates and performance chemicals segments. For 2026, the anticipated loss per share remains largely unchanged, but estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2027 have been revised downward by 3%.
The updated price target reflects not only the changes in earnings forecasts but also incorporates lower net debt projections—stemming from PTTGC’s ongoing deleveraging efforts. Morgan Stanley also adjusted its valuation multiples for the company’s upstream/intermediates, polymer, and performance chemical divisions, aligning them with respective sector peers.
Morgan Stanley views PTTGC as particularly well positioned to benefit from currently tight refining margins and what the firm describes as a “trough” in key chemical spreads. Additionally, the company’s intention to “significantly lower capex outlay in 2026-27” is likely to bolster its balance sheet and long-term growth prospects.
