KGI Securities (Thailand) has revised its near-term outlook for Chularat Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: CHG), following the company’s 4Q25 results meeting. The brokerage noted increased risks stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which could impact CHG’s operations and patient revenue—especially given that Middle Eastern patients accounted for approximately 4% of the hospital’s total revenue.
According to CHG management, revenue growth is expected to remain modest in 2026, reflecting broader uncertainties caused by geopolitical tensions. Nonetheless, the company achieved approximately 4–5% year-on-year revenue growth during the first two months of 2026, indicating some resilience despite the challenging environment.
The company remains unconcerned about reimbursement from the Social Security Office (SSO) for complex treatment cases (RW>2) for the year 2026. The SSO is said to have adequate funding after moving away from the restrictive “global budget” system.
Gastric sleeve surgeries, primarily for obesity treatment, showed positive momentum. After SSO delayed approvals for such treatments in 2025, an increasing number of patients have chosen to self-pay, underscoring their preference for timely treatment and recognition of its long-term health benefits.
Moreover, CHG continues to enhance its reputation as a specialized medical provider in 2026, with ongoing development of its medical hubs. Key centers—including the Heart, Cancer, and Orthopedic Centers—are experiencing greater patient recognition and demand for their services.
KGI has revised its earnings projections for CHG, despite already conservative expectations of revenue growth of 0.8% in 2026 and 0.9% for 2027. The brokerage now forecasts net profit at THB 991 million for 2026, a 6.9% reduction from the previous estimate, and THB 1.02 billion in 2027, down 14.1% from earlier forecasts.
These adjustments reflect updated assumptions on margins and expenses, with gross margin now at 28.4% and the SG&A-to-sales ratio increased to 14.2% for 2026 and 14.0% for 2027.
Following these, KGI continues to maintain an ‘Outperform’ rating on CHG, with a 2026 target price of THB 1.75 per share, believing the stock likely bottomed in 2025 but suggesting patience for a more gradual rebound.
