Trinity Securities expects PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited (SET: PTTGC) to return to profitability in the first quarter of 2026, forecasting a net profit of THB 3.5 billion. This marks a significant improvement from a net loss of THB 2.5 billion in 1Q25 and a net loss of THB 5.5 billion in 4Q25.
Although PTTGC is anticipated to record a substantial hedging loss of approximately THB 8 billion in this quarter, this is expected to be offset by stock gains of a similar magnitude. Additionally, the company is projected to recognize an extra item, specifically an impairment charge of around THB 3 billion. Normalized profit is predicted to reach as high as THB 6 billion, driven by improved performance across all business segments.
The refining segment is expected to benefit from higher market gross refining margin (GRM), supported by expanded spreads for diesel and jet fuel. Trinity Securities estimates the market GRM at $15/bbl. Furthermore, the refinery’s operating rate is expected to return to normal following shutdowns in 4Q25.
The aromatics business is also likely to improve, with utilization rates nearing 90% and recovering spreads for paraxylene (PX) and benzene, as well as positive contribution from condensate residue, which is linked to diesel prices.
Meanwhile, the olefins and polymer businesses are showing positive signs, helped by lower ethane costs after reverting to the previous pricing formula. The performance chemicals segment, especially Allnex, is seeing a seasonal recovery due to higher sales volumes following the fourth quarter, which typically represents the low season.
Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2026, core operations are expected to remain stable, while business performance is likely to vary by segment. The refining business, while still enjoying favorable product spreads at the beginning of the quarter, faces continued volatility and increasing cost pressure from higher crude premiums, which are expected to become more apparent from April to May. These premiums arise from crude oil purchased after recent geopolitical tensions.
The outlook for the olefin and polymer segment is more positive compared to 1Q26, as the benefits of higher polyethylene prices are expected to be felt more strongly from April onwards. The company also anticipates normal product deliveries, with customers generally accepting some degree of cost pass-through.
The aromatics segment continues to benefit from healthy product spreads and solid sales volumes, although the sustainability of this trend will depend on future developments in oil and feedstock markets. Overall, the brokerage sees stronger recovery prospects for the olefin and polymer segments than for refining in 2Q26.
Trinity Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ recommendation on PTTGC, with a target price of THB 38.00 per share, based on a price-to-book value (PBV) of 0.6 times, reflecting the expectation of robust first-quarter performance.
