Yuanta Securities (Thailand) wrote that Thai Coconut Public Company Limited (SET: COCOCO) recorded a net profit of THB 82 million in the first quarter of 2026, representing an increase of 153% quarter-on-quarter and 27% year-on-year.
Excluding non-recurring items, such as gains from foreign exchange and losses from derivatives, normalized profit would be THB 87 million, up by 101% QoQ and 64% YoY, exceeding expectations by 7.6%. This outperformance was primarily attributed to a higher-than-expected gross profit margin (GPM) and lower-than-anticipated tax expenses. The first quarter profit represented 15.9% of Yuanta’s full-year 2026 profit forecast for the company.
Total revenue for the quarter stood at THB 1,487 million, reflecting a decline of 8.2% QoQ and 2.9% YoY. This drop was largely due to slower sales in China, which have yet to recover amid ongoing issues with counterfeit goods. However, new orders in March showed signs of a rebound. Other regions continued to post strong growth, with notable performance in Europe (primarily coconut milk) and the United States (including coconut water, coconut milk, and pet food).
The gross profit margin was 22.6%, slightly above the market’s expectation of 22.4%, and a significant increase from 20.2% in 4Q25 and 18% in 1Q25. This improvement was driven by a substantial decrease in coconut raw material costs. In fact, coconut prices in the first quarter of 2026 were down 43% YoY on average.
Selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) totaled THB 223 million, down 11.7% QoQ but up 8% YoY, accounting for 15% of total revenue in line with expectations. The QoQ decrease was the result of no annual employee bonus expenses during the quarter, while the YoY increase was primarily due to higher marketing expenditures in preparation for the launch of new products under the company’s own brand in 7-Eleven stores, expected in 2Q26.
Yuanta anticipates that COCOCO’s normalized profit will continue to increase, both QoQ and YoY, in the second quarter of 2026, supported by the Asian summer season and a return to normal order volumes from Chinese customers.
Additionally, the launch of the company’s branded coconut water in 7-Eleven and continued expansion of the gross profit margin—thanks to increasing utilization rates and further decreases in coconut prices—are expected to contribute positively. In April 2026, coconut prices fell by a further 21.5% MoM and 59.5% YoY.
Yuanta further assesses that the company’s profit will likely reach its annual peak in the third quarter of 2026, which aligns with the high season for exports and the summer months in Europe and the United States. This period will also see the initial recognition of pet food export revenues from a major U.S. customer and the contribution from a new factory in the Philippines, which is expected to begin operations at the end of the quarter.
Despite the stronger-than-expected normalized profit in the first quarter, Yuanta maintains its full-year 2026 normalized profit forecast at THB 544 million (+130.4% YoY). The brokerage reiterates a ‘Buy’ recommendation and a target price at THB 6.90 per share, citing the risk of coconut price volatility stemming from potential El Niño conditions in the second half of the year, while the current share price offers a 23.3% upside.
