True Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: TRUE) is increasingly being recognized by analysts as a prominent turnaround stock with substantial long-term upside potential. Market sentiment has shifted toward viewing TRUE as an “alpha stock,” driven by its improving operational efficiency and emerging signs of financial strength.
Turnaround Narrative: Focus on Expense Management
The core of TRUE’s recovery story lies in disciplined expense management. While the company’s earnings structure is steadily improving, Mr. Koraphat Vorachet, Assistant Director and Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities notes that the turnaround has been somewhat slower than initially expected. Nevertheless, management’s focus on cost control has begun to yield tangible results, with expenses being handled more efficiently quarter by quarter.
TRUE’s earnings trend remains decisively positive, albeit progressing gradually. Market observers believe that if the company can deliver a clear improvement in fourth-quarter (Q4) earnings—particularly driven by tighter expense discipline—the stock could rally sharply in response.
Signalling Financial Strength: A New Dividend Era
A major development reshaping investor perception of TRUE is its recent shift toward shareholder returns, marking a clear change from its historical profile as a speculative, non-dividend stock.
Following the merger with DTAC, TRUE’s financial structure has strengthened, enabling the company to announce an interim dividend—a move widely interpreted as a signal of confidence from management in the sustainability of the earnings turnaround.
This shift suggests that TRUE may be transitioning into a company capable of consistent dividend payments, reflecting not only improved profitability but also stronger financial discipline and long-term strategic confidence.
Market Outlook and Tourism Tailwind
Krungsri Securities believes the market is currently in the process of re-rating TRUE, reassessing both its valuation and the pace at which its turnaround will materialize. Beyond internal efficiency gains, external macro factors could further support upside potential.
In particular, a stronger tourism rebound in 2026—after weaker-than-expected travel activity this year—could provide a meaningful boost to the telecommunications sector, with TRUE among the key beneficiaries.
According to a consensus compiled by LSEG, 14 brokers recommended ‘BUY’ on TRUE with only one recommending ‘Hold’ and zero ‘Sell’. The consensus target price stands at THB 15.13 per share, representing an upside of about 28% from the current trading price of THB 11.80 per share.
