KGI Securities expects Thailand’s stock market performance in September to hinge on fluid political developments following the Constitutional Court’s decision to disqualify Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on ethics grounds.
Thai equities largely consolidated during August, in line with KGI’s outlook, with market gains driven by optimism over a favorable U.S.-Thai tariff arrangement, expectations of further monetary easing from the Bank of Thailand, and stronger-than-anticipated second-quarter results.
Meanwhile, the final week of the month brought heightened volatility, spurred by the MSCI quarterly rebalancing and fresh political uncertainty after the Constitutional Court’s ruling removed both the Prime Minister and her cabinet.
Heading into September, KGI anticipates that evolving political scenarios will inject further volatility. The brokerage firm outlines three possible paths: the market’s preferred outcome is a coalition formed by the Pheu Thai and the People’s Party, which would likely lend support to equities this month.
The second scenario involves the People’s Party aligning with the Bhumjaithai and endorsing Anutin Charnvirakul as Prime Minister, potentially resulting in shifts to economic and social policy.
A third, more negative development would be the abrupt dissolution of parliament and the calling of new general elections in the fourth quarter, a move that could weigh heavily on investor sentiment.
Given these uncertainties and signs of an economic slowdown, KGI predicts the Bank of Thailand will cut its benchmark interest rate further to 1.00% by year-end.
Stock picks
Amid this volatile backdrop, KGI highlights five stocks for September: AP (Thailand) (SET: AP), Origin Property (SET: ORI), B.Grimm Power (SET: BGRIM), Srisawad Corporation (SET: SAWAD), and Synnex (Thailand) (SET: SYNEX).
AP (Thailand) is set to benefit in the second half of 2025 from an aggressive pipeline of new launches totaling THB 53 billion, as well as the transfer of three newly completed condominiums and a large backlog of landed property sales. An easing interest rate cycle and a more favorable supply-demand balance should also support margins, while property stimulus measures may further boost prospects. The analyst gives AP a target price of THB 9.00 per share.
For Origin Property, KGI has grown more optimistic on the company given recent clarity on its asset divestment plan and upcoming condo transfers through 2027. With high leverage, ORI stands to benefit further from a declining interest rate environment, and KGI has raised its 2025-2026 profit forecasts to reflect higher-margin sales and asset gains. The analyst gives ORI a target price of THB 2.66 per share.
B.Grimm Power’s outlook has improved amid slower Thai electricity tariff reductions, recovering industrial activity, and easing tariff risks in Vietnam. KGI has revised its 2025-2027 profit forecasts upward by 12–22%, noting that the company’s first-half results have already captured 60% of the analyst’s full-year target. The analyst gives BGRIM a target price of THB 14.00 per share.
Srisawad Corporation’s management anticipates that losses from hire purchase loans have peaked and expects double-digit growth in 2026. The company also plans to reinstate cash dividends with an approximate 5% yield, and KGI projects that lower LOS will trim operating expenses and help lift earnings by 8% in 2025 and 7% in 2026. The analyst gives SAWAD a target price of THB 25.75 per share.
For Synex (Thailand), the company’s earnings outlook for the second half remains solid, buoyed by seasonally strong sales. Although tariff uncertainties linger, the impact on business has yet to materialize but remains a factor to monitor. KGI has adjusted the valuation multiple to account for some risk, but the revised target price continues to indicate potential upside. The analyst gives SYNEX a target price of THB 13.00 per share.
Following these developments, KGI remains watchful of ongoing political developments and macroeconomic signals, viewing the current environment as one full of both risks and opportunities for discerning investors.
