Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage of SpaceX with an Overweight rating and a price target of $300, highlighting the company’s unmatched position at the intersection of space infrastructure, global connectivity, and artificial intelligence. The firm details a bullish scenario of $600 and a bearish scenario of $75, reflecting the range of possible outcomes for the company’s ambitious growth plans.
The investment bank notes four key drivers powering SpaceX’s outlook:
- Starship: Full reusability is expected to dramatically lower launch costs, making AI infrastructure and satellite deployment far more cost-effective and scalable.
- Starlink: The satellite broadband division aims to move beyond the consumer market into enterprise, government, mobile, and AI-powered device segments, potentially positioning itself as a global connectivity standard.
- AI Infrastructure: SpaceX’s vertical integration could allow it to build data centers more quickly and cheaply than competitors, with orbital AI as a long-term differentiator.
- Enterprise AI: The company is projected to evolve from GPU rentals to offering higher-margin enterprise AI solutions such as automation, software, and digital agents, lifting revenue per watt.
Morgan Stanley forecasts SpaceX revenue will surge from about $45 billion in 2026 to roughly $319 billion in 2030 and a staggering $3.3 trillion by 2040. Starship’s advanced reusability is predicted to drive launch costs down to around $500/kg by 2030, dropping below $200/kg by 2035, significantly expanding the economic viability of satellite and AI ventures.
Starlink is expected to establish itself as a crucial connectivity layer for consumers, enterprises, governments, and AI-enabled devices globally. The analysts see SpaceX delivering AI infrastructure at nearly half the industry’s cost per watt with much faster deployment speeds.
AI-related revenue is projected to soar from about $22 billion in 2026 to $190 billion in 2030 and $2.6 trillion in 2040, driven by a shift toward higher-margin software and enterprise offerings.
Key near-term catalysts identified by Morgan Stanley include additional Starship test flights, the first operational Starship payloads, new AI cloud contracts, growth in Starlink subscribers, and significant enterprise deals.
However, the report also flags notable risks: execution challenges, funding requirements, Starship delays, technology maturity, regulatory developments, increasing competition, and reliance on Elon Musk.
