Airports of Thailand Pcl. (SET: AOT) has had its share price move up and down since the unprecedented spread of Covid-19 in early 2020. Throughout 2020, AOT’s share price fell by over 16 percent, and in 2021, it fell by another 2 percent.
However, it has risen by roughly 13.11 percent so far in 2022, an optimistic trend following Thailand’s official reopening of its borders.
With Thailand ready to finally welcome international tourists again beginning in July, analysts all agreed to rate a “BUY” recommendation on AOT, given the fact that tourist returning will help AOT back to profit this year.
Maybank Securities (Thailand) (MST) maintains the target price for AOT at THB80, and rates AOT as its our Top Pick in the Thai tourism sector, as a prime beneficiary of the Thai tourism recovery, along with MINT (TP: THB42) which benefits from the rapid recovery in
Europe where 60 percent of its hotel income comes from.
AOT cuts passenger forecasts by 1-27% for 2022-2024. The cuts are mostly for international passengers, due to: 1) the Omicron resurgence in 2Q22 (1Q22 calendar year) that affected travel; and 2) later-than expected China re-opening, which now AOT expects in January 2023 (against late 2022 in their earlier assumption), according to MST.
In April 2022, foreign arrivals totaled 293,350, up 39 percent MoM due to easing of entry requirements and the long Songkran festival. From 1-15 June, there were 348,699 tourist arrivals, which might lead to 700,000 for June (+47 percent MoM).
MST believes planned endemicity in 2H22 should boost tourism, and international arrivals could peak in 4Q22. 4Q22 should see 3 million international arrivals. As AOT earns THB700 in passenger service charge for each international arrival versus THB100 for domestic, overseas arrivals will boost 2023 earnings.
As of 16.00 hrs. local time in Thailand, the share price of AOT rose THB0.75/share or 1.09% to THB69.75/share, with a THB1,265 million.
|Maybank Securities (Thailand)||BUY||THB80.00|
|Capital Nomura Securities||NEUTRAL||THB67.00|