It seems unlikely that Thailand’s new prime minister will be appointed at tomorrow’s parliament meeting, after the poll body has referred Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat’s ITV case to the Constitutional Court over whether his prime ministerial candidate is disqualified as the house representative.
The Election Commission of Thailand decided on Wednesday to refer to the Constitutional Court for ruling on whether Move Forward Party leader and prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat should be disqualified as a representative due to a shareholding dispute.
According to reports, the election board also asked that Pita be temporarily suspended from his parliamentary position awaiting the outcome of the court case.
This referral occurs just one day before Pita challenges the office of prime minister in the two houses of parliament. To create the next government, he has the support of eight parties in a coalition.
The progressive Move Forward Party has stated that Pita’s qualification to serve as prime minister is unaffected by this case, but he may be barred from serving in the House of Representatives.
Tisco Securities, however, believes that many senators would take the event as an excuse to vote against Pita tomorrow, bringing his chances of being selected as head of government to near zero.
The brokerage firm also does not see Thailand will have the new prime minister at the parliament meeting tomorrow. Even if Pheu Thai Party proposes one of their candidates instead, Tisco believes the upper house will not vote for their candidate neither because MFP is still in the coalition, and it may take several weeks for the parliament to appoint a new prime minister, possibly from Pheu Thai Party or one of the current government parties.
In the event that the MFP fails to lead the coalition, Tisco anticipates a modest recovery in stocks negatively impacted by the MFP’s policies. However, as political uncertainty grows, the market is expected to become more volatile in the short term, with the degree of volatility possibly depending on whether MFP supporters would take to the streets for a protest.
Tisco recommends keeping more cash and bottom fishing for domestic plays and energy. The firm suggests bottom-fishing for value businesses, particularly those involved in domestic equities like banking, retail, and travel and tourism if the market corrects.
PTTEP and OR are suggested, and a comeback from PTTGC is anticipated, as the policy from MFP affecting some energy stocks could fail to be implemented.
The following stocks are included in the long-only basket: SCB, BBL, CPALL, ADVANC, AP, MINT, BDMS, OR, SISB, and MENA.
