According to an analysis by Maybank Securities, Carabao Group Public Company Limited (SET: CBG) is showing signs of a rebound as domestic performance strengthens and international headwinds appear to be easing.
In a recent meeting attended by over ten local investment funds, Maybank Securities viewed a slightly positive tone on CBG, particularly in regard to the company’s energy drink sales in Thailand. Despite ongoing tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, which may weigh on third-quarter 2025 earnings, the analyst believes that CBG has already seen the worst of the impact in September.
The brokerage firm expects the border dispute to gradually subside, citing efforts by Thailand’s new prime minister to de-escalate the situation and signals from the Cambodian government indicating readiness for reconciliation.
CBG’s overseas sales are projected to reach a trough in the third quarter before staging a recovery in the final three months of 2025. The launch of a new production facility in Cambodia in December is expected to further alleviate trade friction, especially with products labeled as “made in Cambodia.” CBG’s management anticipates market normalcy could return within six months.
Domestically, CBG is targeting a record-breaking September for both energy drink sales and distribution income, with ambitions to raise its market share to 27-28% by the end of fiscal 2025, up from 26.1% in July. Energy drink sales in Thailand continue to offer higher gross profit margins than overseas, and lower raw material costs are expected to support margins to remain stable in the second half of the year.
Looking abroad, management is confident about the long-term upside as new plants come online in Myanmar (with a 70% ownership stake), Cambodia (60%), and through partnerships in China and the Middle East. These investments are set to streamline logistics, lower import taxes, and provide cost flexibility to boost marketing and remain competitive.
In previous strong years, sales to Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam (CLMV) reached THB 6.8 billion in fiscal 2021, underscoring the upside potential compared to Maybank’s projected THB 5 billion for fiscal 2026. Meanwhile, China’s contribution has ranged between THB 385 million and THB 1 billion per year during fiscal 2017-2022, with the 2026 estimate standing at THB 20 million—leaving room for further growth and roughly 12% upside to the revenue forecast.
Following these, Maybank Securities reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating on CBG, with a target price of THB 65.25 per share. The price is pegged to 19 times estimated 2026 earnings, slightly below the company’s five-year historical average.
