Mr. Nopadej Karnasuta, President of Thailand, Malaysia and Energy & Industrial Solutions Business of B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited (SET: BGRIM), stated that the company is preparing to participate in several projects under the Quick Big Win energy initiative. Of particular note is the pilot 2,000 MW Direct Power Purchase Agreement (Direct PPA) project, which is under negotiation and has already attracted interest from data center clients.
Meanwhile, BGRIM is also interested in joining the government’s community solar project, which has a total power purchase capacity of 1,500 MW. The company is currently studying the feasibility of cooperating with local communities and is in discussions with potential partners for community solar development. Additionally, BGRIM plans to take part in the upcoming bidding for floating solar projects at the three main dams operated by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT)—Bhumibol, Vajiralongkorn, and Srinagarind—with a combined capacity of 1,638 MW.
Regarding mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for the rest of the year, BGRIM is currently engaged in negotiations on several deals, with a combined capacity of around 200-300 MW. It expects to close 2-3 overseas renewable energy project deals before the end of the year.
Analysts at KGI Securities (Thailand) have stated that market sentiment toward BGRIM is likely to improve further, buoyed by a 15% YoY resurgence in exports of Thai automobiles and auto parts (which constitute 40% of BGRIM’s industrial user (IU) clients) in September. This signals stronger IU demand, supported by improved utilization rates. In addition, the Nakwol1 wind power project in South Korea has made significant progress, currently 64% completed in 3Q25 (up from 57% in 2Q25), with no delays. The Scheduled Commercial Operation Date (SCOD) is set for 2026, with a capacity of 179 MW, alleviating previous concerns.
Additionally, the company is aiming for asset monetization by early 2026 to push its targeted installed capacity to 10 GW by 2030 (up from 6.2 GW). This will likely be synchronized with effective M&A deals, helping hedge against profit variation from the potential divestment of Small Power Producer (SPP) shares, and positioning the company for longer-term growth through direct PPA agreements with data center clients.
As for BGRIM’s performance outlook, the company is expected to announce 3Q25 net profit of THB 525 million on November 10, a 223% increase YoY and a 7,572% jump QoQ. This surge is largely due to FX gains and stronger margins at SPP plants, helped by a decrease in gas prices to THB 299 per MMBtu (down THB 37 from 3Q24 and THB 72 from 2Q25), along with a 3% increase in IU electricity sales compared with the previous quarter.
Core profit for the first nine months of this year is estimated at THB 1.6 billion, down 14% YoY. 4Q25 core profit is expected to be this year’s lowest, given planned plant maintenance shutdowns and sharply declining IU demand, though supported by a further reduction in gas prices to around THB 290 per MMBtu and partial commercial operation (COD) of the Nakwol1 project (3-4 turbines out of 64 total).
KGI Securities maintains its “BUY” recommendation for BGRIM’s shares, with a raised 2026 target price of THB 18.10 (from THB 14) per share and an upward revision of 2026-2027 core profit estimates by 7-10%, to reflect higher IU demand. Investors are likely to focus on falling interest rate trends, stronger SPP margins, and potential upside from the direct PPA as the Nakwol1 project progresses and as company assets are monetized (through sale or lease) to enhance liquidity.
Globlex Securities holds a positive view on BGRIM, projecting strong profit growth from asset sales, improved margins, and overseas expansion. It recommends “BUY,” with a target price of THB 20 per share.
