Thailand’s SET Index closed the morning session on Thursday at 1,466.03 points, a decrease of 4.96 points or 0.34%, with a trading value of THB 32.38 billion. Mr. Kitphon Praipaisankij, Deputy Managing Director at UOB Kay Hian Securities (Thailand), noted that the Thai stock market exhibited a downward trend, tracking the declines in Asian markets, amid a negative investment climate.
The sentiment deteriorated after U.S. President Donald Trump made a statement earlier with a rather negative tone, raising concerns that the U.S. may resort to military force to pressure Iran into negotiations. This reversed a more relaxed trend on Wednesday, leading to renewed market tension and a rebound in oil prices.
Mr. Kitphon further elaborated that the outlook for the Middle East conflict suggests a protracted situation, likely to last another one to two months, or possibly even extending to two to three months, depending on Iran’s response to President Trump’s remarks.
He believes that the United States ultimately seeks to end the conflict, especially with U.S. midterm elections scheduled for later this year. Persistently high energy prices could further exacerbate inflation and lead to greater economic challenges.
A plausible scenario, according to Mr. Kitphon, is that the U.S. may declare victory early and withdraw, without addressing the strategic issues concerning the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran is expected to levy passage fees through the Strait to offset damages from the attacks—a settlement the U.S. is unlikely to accept.
Regarding oil prices, the analyst remarked that prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels, as significant damage has been sustained to the Middle East’s energy infrastructure. As a result, regardless of how the conflict concludes, Brent crude prices are expected to remain elevated.
Presently, Brent is trading above $100 per barrel, and following the end of the conflict, the average price is expected to stabilize in the range of $80-85 per barrel, up from the previous $60-65 per barrel, representing an increase of approximately 20-25%.
This would benefit upstream energy stocks, refiners, and petrochemical sectors, leading to very strong earnings in the first quarter of 2026. However, other sectors may start to feel the impact in the second quarter of 2026, with profits expected to slow down.
Following these developments, Mr. Kitphon anticipates that the SET Index will fluctuate in the range of 1,410 to 1,470 points in April. The market is expected to trend downward in the afternoon session, despite continuing buying interest in energy stocks, offset by profit-taking in non-energy stocks. The support level is set at 1,455 points with the resistance at 1,470 points.
The five securities with the highest trading value were as follows:
- DELTA: trading value of THB 2.70 billion, closing at THB 271.00, down THB 2.00 or 0.73%
- PTTEP: trading value of THB 2.32 billion, closing at THB 159.50, up THB 3.00 or 1.92%
- PTT: trading value of THB 1.79 billion, closing at THB 35.50, up THB 0.75 or 2.16%
- TRUE: trading value of THB 1.57 billion, closing at THB 14.40, down THB 0.10 or 0.69%
- ADVANC: trading value of THB 1.52 billion, closing at THB 360.00, down THB 5.00 or 1.37%
