Mr. Chaiyot Jiwangkul, Assistant Director of Securities Analysis at Krungsri Securities (KSS), during the “Kaohoon” program on May 20, 2026, stated that the Thai market may potentially consolidate. However, if the index falls below the 1,500-point level, it may cause the market to lose momentum in the short term.
The main pressure still comes from the unresolved ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran, which have kept oil prices elevated. This situation is increasingly passing on inflationary pressure to many countries, especially energy-driven or cost-push inflation, which is more difficult to control than demand-side inflation.
Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen to around 4.66% from around 4% two months ago, reflecting investor concerns about inflation trends and rising borrowing costs. This has led to a tendency for foreign capital to flow out of risk assets, including the Thai bourse.
Mr. Chaiyot stated that if the U.S.-Iran situation continues to drag on and fails to keep oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, it will significantly increase the risk to the global economy, as energy is a critical cost in many sectors, including production, transportation, and consumer goods. This will impact the cost of living, inflation, and purchasing power on a broad scale.
However, if the conflict can be resolved within around six months, the Thai economy still has partial support from domestic economic stimulus measures, particularly the “Thai Chuay Thai” initiative, which will help cushion domestic purchasing power in the short term. Nevertheless, if oil prices remain high for a prolonged period, this could affect the outlook for Thailand’s GDP this year.
For the SET Index, Mr. Chaiyot believes that although the market is still under pressure from rising oil prices and bond yields, the Thai market fundamentals have not yet been damaged. The 1Q26 earnings were quite satisfactory. However, first-quarter earnings have not yet reflected the impact of oil prices rising due to the conflict, so it is necessary to monitor whether growth will continue in 2Q26.
Regarding investment strategy, Mr. Chaiyot recommends speculating stocks that benefit from higher energy prices and bond yields, such as the energy, banking, and insurance sectors.
For investors who do not want to chase sharply rising stocks, it may be worth considering stocks that are less affected by energy costs, such as the ICT group, especially ADVANC and TRUE, whose 1Q26 results continued to show growth.
Mr. Chaiyot further stated that if the “Thai Chuay Thai” measure can progress as planned, it would be a direct positive for retail and consumer goods stocks, and an indirect support for finance stocks, due to improved purchasing power and the ability of small business operators to service debt. Bankings, meanwhile, will benefit from the economy not slowing down severely.
However, if the 400-billion-baht emergency decree cannot move forward, it will significantly affect market expectations, as the measure is a crucial driver to support domestic purchasing power under high energy costs pressure.
Regarding investment opportunities from government’s renewable energy measures , Mr. Chaiyot believes that if the solar rooftop installation project for government agencies, state enterprises, and households, as well as Private PPA in the business sector project move forward, it would be positive for stocks related primarily to solar system installation.
