Mr. Chaiyot Jiwangkul, Assistant Director of Securities Analysis at Krungsri Securities (KSS), during the “Kaohoon” program on April 1, 2026, stated the war in Iran situation is currently in the negotiation phase as the U.S. President Donald Trump signals an early-than-expected end to the war.
He anticipates sectors previously affected by the war such as power plant, retail, and finance to exhibit recovery. However, there are downward pressures from upstream energy such as BANPU and PTTEP, as they previously benefited from investors speculating on a prolonged war and rising energy prices.
Overall, Mr. Chaiyot estimates the Thai market to rebound, potentially reaching as high as 1,466 or 1,480 points. Regarding the percentage of the recovery, the east Asian market performed better than the Southeast Asian market largely due to the lower-base effect, as they have sharply declined in the past sessions.
As such, Mr. Chaiyot highlights sectors that have declined during the height of the energy crisis, but the scale of the recovery largely depends on case-by-case basis. For example, the industrial energy sector mostly has a positive catalyst from Microsoft’s additional $1 billion dollar investment in Thailand’s data center infrastructure, which was announced yesterday, while the finance sectors will largely benefit from the government’s economic stimulus measures alleviating living costs.
The analyst also urged caution on the upstream energy sector such as PTTEP and BANPU, as they may potentially face profit-taking actions. He also recommends investors monitor the refinery sector’s gross refining margin and petroleum spread, as the sector may also experience profit-taking actions.
On the political front, Mr. Chaiyot stated that the royal approval of the new cabinet, and the subsequent oath of allegiance making and policies declaration, may have little impact on the Thai market compared to the rollout of the stimulus measures.
