Finansia Syrus Securities reported that the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has approved the electricity tariff (Ft rate) for May-August 2026 at THB 3.95 per unit, representing a 0.07 baht increase per unit from the previous period, in line with the company’s forecast.
The deliberation includes the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) continuing to shoulder an accumulated cost burden of THB 35.93 billion. Additionally, the ERC has used approximately THB 9.47 billion in claw-back funds to help ease electricity costs amid ongoing volatility in the global energy market due to Middle East tensions.
The brokerage views this Ft rate hike as a slight positive for the renewable energy sector, neutral for Independent Power Producers (IPPs), but a negative for Small Power Producers (SPPs) since they cannot fully pass on higher fuel costs to customers under Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) terms. The THB 3.95 per unit rate aligns with Finansia’s earlier assumptions, which already factored its impact on SPP operators like BGRIM, GPSC, and WHAUP, from 2Q26 through the end of 2026. Estimated net profit declines are 27% for BGRIM, 14% for GPSC, and 11% for WHAUP.
However, Finansia notes that share prices for these three companies have already reflected much of this negative impact. If geopolitical tensions ease and gas shipment through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, leading to lower gas prices, it could create a short-term positive sentiment and potentially boost share prices.
In the long term, the firm remains optimistic about the power sector’s growth prospects, driven by increasing electricity demand and new plant bidding opportunities once the new Power Development Plan (PDP) comes into effect under the new government. Finansia maintains an ‘Overweight’ outlook on the sector, highlighting GULF (target price THB 67.50), WHAUP (THB 5.90), and BCPG (THB 9.20) as top picks.
