Sombat Narawutthichai, Secretary-General of the Investment Analysts Association (IAA), has released results from a recent survey of analysts and fund managers from 25 institutions, providing insights into Thailand’s economic and stock market prospects for 2026.
Six stocks received the strongest consensus recommendations: Advanced Info Service PCL (SET: ADVANC) and True Corporation PCL (SET: TRUE) stand out as defensive picks, given their suitability for volatile markets and potential for dividend yields.
Other notable picks include Amata Corporation PCL (SET: AMATA), benefiting from industrial land sales fueled by new investment, and Bangkok Dusit Medical Services PCL (SET: BDMS), which is poised to capitalize on the resurgence of foreign patients and robust medical tourism.
Gulf Development PCL (SET: GULF) is highlighted for growth potential due to the continued ramp-up of new power plant projects, while Krung Thai Bank PCL (SET: KTB) is favored for its government role and steady loan growth.
The survey signals a “slightly” positive sentiment for the Thai equity market in 2026, counterbalanced by external risks such as oil price volatility and Middle East conflicts. Respondents forecast Thai economic growth at an average of 1.72% for 2026, a marginal improvement, with oil prices expected to average $80.80 per barrel.
Key financial assumptions from the survey include a risk-free rate of 2.04% and a risk premium of 8.07%, pointing to a continued high-risk environment. Domestic politics (92% of respondents) and foreign fund inflows (76%) are seen as the main drivers for investment confidence, while the biggest risks remain the Iran conflict (92%), oil price swings (84%), Quantitative Easing (QE) tightening (72%), and global economic slowdown (60%).
Sombat noted that even if the ongoing conflict does not persist, the market should closely monitor energy prices. A prolonged conflict—lasting over three months—may necessitate a revision of economic forecasts. Most analysts predict the Thai policy interest rate, currently at 1%, may decrease, with estimates ranging down to 0.75% and in some cases 0.5%.
For 2026, listed company earnings per share (EPS) are expected to average THB 87.64, marking a drop from previous forecasts, with limited growth expected at 4.76%. The SET index is predicted to fluctuate between 1,310–1,570 points, potentially ending the year at 1,516 points.
IAA advises investors to diversify: 27% in Thai stocks, 26.8% in foreign equities, 17.4% in fixed income, 14.82% in cash, and the remainder in gold (9.08%) and REITs (3.7%). Retail, energy, utilities, healthcare, and communications are recommended for overweighting; petrochemical and electronics should be underweighted. Sectors to avoid include construction, power plants (due to high gas costs), and highly leveraged airlines vulnerable to fuel price changes.
For global exposure, analysts suggest targeting technology themes—AI, data centers, semiconductors—plus nuclear energy and infrastructure, with attractive markets in Asia (China, Korea, India, and Japan). Recommended DRs include AAPL80, BABA80, and NVDA80.
Maybank Securities (Thailand) has revised down its 2026 GDP forecast for Thailand to 1.5% following a sharp rise in domestic fuel prices, but still sees potential for upside if geopolitical tensions ease. Key variables to watch remain oil prices and developments in Iran.
On the capital markets, Asadej Kongsiri of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) highlighted the successful IPO of Unique Plastic Industry PCL (SET: UNIX) as a positive example for future listings. The stable government and clear policies further support a favorable fundraising environment. Thailand’s stock market continues to show strength, ranking second-best in Asia despite international turmoil, bolstered by expectations for upcoming policy rollouts.
Strategic initiatives like the TISA project and Bond Connect are poised to attract new capital and broaden public access to government bonds, with SET working closely with finance authorities to advance these objectives.
